Yale economist Robert Shiller has been right far more often than most in his profession, and he commands far more respect. Not only did he warn of stock market peaks in 2000 and housing troubles in 2004, but he did so largely on the basis of his own metrics and data. He draws different conclusions from most because he thinks differently from most.
CAPE -- the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio -- is one of his metrics. A standard P/E ratio can be misleading at the tops and bottoms of business cycles, as one year's earnings may be unsustainably high or low. CAPE gets around this by averaging together 10 years of earnings and adjusting for inflation.
What it shows right now troubles some market watchers. Since 1871, CAPE has averaged about 16. Right now, it's at 22. Many have used CAPE to argue that the Dow Jones (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC ) are overvalued -- by quite a lot, in fact.
But there are�two sides to every story. Last week I asked Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders what she thought of the CAPE argument. "Here are a couple of problems with that metric," she said. Hear her out (transcript follows):
Top 5 Promising Companies To Buy Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)
Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Matt DiLallo]
Investors may wonder if peers like�Halliburton� (NYSE: HAL ) �and�Schlumberger� (NYSE: SLB ) �were pressured this quarter as well. Both companies have waded through the sluggish North American market by relying on growth overseas. If that trend continues, it should continue to mute some of the weakness Nabors experienced.
- [By Maxx Chatsko]
Industry ties
The company's management team has deep roots in the energy industry, specifically in oilfield services. President and CEO Gary Kolstad spent 21 years at Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) before joining CARBO, while Don Conkle, vice president of marketing and sales, spent 26 years at the same firm. No wonder Schlumberger is one of the top two customers for this proppant manufacturer. Both served in various roles at the company and are well versed in the ebbs and flows of the energy industry, which should serve investors well through the rocky environment of falling natural gas drilling activity. - [By Jim Jubak]
And a few attractive names are down even more. Schlumberger (SLB), for instance, is down 7.1% from November 11 through December 4, and Middleby (MIDD) is down 8.8% from October 25 through December 4.
- [By David Smith]
As June came to an end, the company finalized a joint venture, OneSubsea, with Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ) . The intriguing partnership -- in which Cameron has a 60% interest, with the remainder Schlumberger's -- will develop products, systems, and services for the subsea oil and gas market.
Best Valued Stocks For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)
Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By John Kell]
Among the companies with shares expected to actively trade in Wednesday’s session are Dow Chemical Co.(DOW), Tupperware Brands Corp.(TUP) and Yahoo Inc.(YHOO)
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Shares of Herbalife have gained 0.9% to $79.51 this morning in pre-open trading. Its shares have gained 139% this year, a nice gain, but lagging Nu Skin Enterprises 271% rise. Avon Products�(AVP), another multi-level marketer, has gained 21% so far this year, while Tupperware Brands�(TUP) has risen 49%.
- [By Brian Pacampara]
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, household products company Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.
- [By Johanna Bennett]
Corporate earnings took a back seat today to the Fed�� latest policy decision. Still, quarterly financial results, and other news sent shares of McCormick & Co. (MKC) and Tupperware (TUP), falling during regular market hours�Here�� a rundown of several of today�� moves:
Best Valued Stocks For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Victor Reklaitis]
Today�� movers & shakers: Retailers have dropped in the wake of disappointing quarterly results or outlooks. Target Corp. (TGT) �was down 4% after posting weaker margins and earnings at its U.S. business, while Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) �dropped 4% after its earnings fell in the third quarter. Read more in the Movers & Shakers column.
- [By Lawrence Meyers]
As a convenience store, it doesn’t have direct competition from�Dollar Tree (DLTR) or Family Dollar (FDO) because these dollar stores aren�� exclusively focused on food (and they have no gasoline or cigarette sales), and they��e targeted at the folks who are trying to save money over convenience, not vice versa. The convenience angle is another reason why�Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST)�aren’t competitors, since those behemoths are about a total shopping experience.
- [By Jacob Roche]
With the economy starting to improve, you might think Dollar Tree's (NASDAQ: DLTR ) fortunes will reverse. The deep discounter provided unemployed and lower-income consumers a safe place in the storm, but with the economic weather clearing up, it would be reasonable to expect consumers to venture out again to higher-end retailers. However, that assumption would be wrong.
Best Valued Stocks For 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Dan Caplinger]
Moreover, Manitowoc has managed to maintain a healthy backlog of orders that show the company's potential to sustain its long-term growth. With $776 million of outstanding crane orders as of March, the backlog represents about four months' worth of revenue for the segment, roughly in line with what industry giant Caterpillar's (NYSE: CAT ) $20.4 billion in order backlog equates to as a proportion of its much larger total revenue. Yet Manitowoc hasn't seen Caterpillar's substantial contraction in sales recently, pointing to the crane-maker's greater resiliency.
- [By Nikolaj Gammeltoft]
Caterpillar (CAT) slid 4.2 percent to $82.06 for the steepest loss in the Dow. Earnings for the world�� largest maker of mining and construction machinery trailed analysts��estimates for a third straight quarter and cut its forecast as mining-equipment sales declined on slower commodity demand from emerging markets.
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