Monday, May 21, 2018

Soybean prices climb as U.S., China trade war truce lifts ���veil of uncertainty��

Soybean prices climbed Monday, poised for their strongest one-day gain in more than a month, as the U.S. declared an apparent truce in its trade spat with China.

In Monday dealings, soybeans for July delivery SN8, +2.75% �were trading 23 cents, or 2.3%, higher at $10.21 1/4 cents in Chicago, poised for their highest settlement since May 10. Prices for the most-active contract haven��t see a point or percentage gain this large in a single session since March 29, according to FactSet data.

They still trade roughly 2.2% lower year to date and below the closing price of $10.35 a bushel for most-active futures registered on April 2, the last session before China said it would impose 25% tariffs on imports of U.S. soybeans and other crops in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sunday that the Trump administration would ��put the trade war on hold�� and delay tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S. as the countries work out a deal to cut the U.S. trade deficit with China.

Read: Mnuchin insists White House is unified on China trade deal

As the U.S.-China trade dispute heated up earlier this year, the U.S. agricultural market, and soybeans in particular, was expected to be particularly hard hit.

Read: U.S. soybeans would be China��s biggest weapon in a trade war

��Soybean sales to China had been noticeably slowing in recent weeks due to traders�� concerns that the Chinese anti-dumping deposits imposed on sorghum imports, which essentially killed all sorghum exports to China, might be replicated on soybeans,�� said Sal Gilbertie, president and chief investment officer at Teucrium Trading.

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show U.S. soybean export sales of 299,200 metric tons for the current marketing year as of May 10, down from 370,900 metric tons a week earlier.

��There were both deposits and an ongoing ��investigation��,�� on sorghum imports, said Gilbertie. ��I believe all were just positioning��and that sorghum was the sacrificial lamb the Chinese used as a negotiating tactic because an actual deposit on soybeans would have been too much to do.��

��Either way, all seems back to normal now,�� he said. The Teucrium Soybean Fund SOYB, +2.45% was up 2.2% Monday at $18.55.

Comments from Mnuchin showed what could be a ��de-escalation phase�� in the U.S.-China trade war, Andrei Agapi, Asia-Pacific agriculture manager for S&P Global Platts, wrote in a report on Monday, noting that the Chinese Ministry of

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